The United States holds its midterm elections on November 3, with every one of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate's 100 seats on the ballot, according to SVT Nyheter. The outcome will determine which party controls Congress during Donald Trump's last two years as president.
SVT Nyheter reports that the result carries direct consequences for how much of the White House's agenda can be enacted. If Republicans hold their majorities, the president's legislation and appointments face fewer obstacles. If Democrats win control of either chamber, they gain the ability to block parts of the administration's program.
Why it matters
Midterm elections function as a verdict on the sitting president's party, and this one arrives with Trump's approval ratings at a low point. Swedish broadcaster Sveriges Radio reports record-low support for Trump, a finding echoed by Expressen, which states that his backing has never been weaker. Yle likewise reports that Trump is less popular than ever in the United States.
That polling backdrop shapes the contest for Congress. SVT Nyheter notes that all House members face election every two years, which means national political sentiment tends to weigh heavily on individual district races. In the Senate, only about a third of the seats are contested in any given cycle, making the map narrower and the individual state races more decisive.
The math in each chamber
In the Senate, a party needs at least 51 of the 100 seats for a majority of its own. In the event of a tie vote, the vice president casts the deciding ballot, SVT Nyheter reports.
In the House, 218 of the 435 seats are required for a majority.
SVT Nyheter has compiled forecasts from a range of assessors for both chambers. The outlet notes that these analysts use differing methods and can therefore reach different conclusions, but that taken together they offer a picture of which party currently stands the best chance of securing a majority.
The broadcaster's maps and seat projections rate each Senate race on a scale running from safe seats to contests considered completely open. The color coding follows the assessment of the Cook Political Report, and users can click on an individual state to see how other forecasters rate the same race. For the House, the map shows Cook Political Report's rating for each district, with additional detail available on individual local races.
Who is doing the forecasting
SVT Nyheter lists the sources behind its projections. Cook Political Report and Inside Elections are described as politically independent analysis firms that have assessed the American political landscape since the 1980s.
Silver Bulletin is the newsletter of Nate Silver, the creator of the now-closed forecasting site FiveThirtyEight, in which he models the election using a new method.
Sabato's Crystal Ball is the analysis of Larry J. Sabato, founder of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
The Economist and The Hill are established news outlets with political coverage, both with roots in print media. VoteHub and FiftyPlusOne are newer entrants offering analysis and predictions built on statistical models. Kalshi is a prediction market where participants can wager money on election results and other events.
What to watch
With just over two weeks until polling day, the contest remains a fight for control of both chambers, and the forecasts compiled by SVT Nyheter will be updated as the final stretch of the campaign unfolds.
